📈 What’s Happening
A recent World-Grain.com report shows that global agricultural production is expected to grow by 14% over the next decade. This data comes from the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook for 2025–2034, a major joint effort by two of the most respected voices in world ag economics.
This annual report looks ahead at how production and consumption might evolve across the globe — and it’s a valuable read if you want to keep ahead of the curve.
🌾 Key Numbers to Watch
Here are some of the production shifts they’re forecasting — and why they matter:
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Wheat: Global production projected to climb 74 million metric tons (mmt) to hit 874 mmt.
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India alone will account for 29% of that growth.
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Corn: Global production is set to rise 188 mmt, reaching 1.4 billion mmt.
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The biggest contributors:
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U.S.: +33 mmt
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Brazil: +32 mmt
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China: +27 mmt
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Most of the growth will be from yield gains, not land expansion.
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Soybeans: Production growth will slow compared to the previous decade, but soybean crushing will still grow 62 mmt — a solid but more measured pace than the 95 mmt jump seen previously.
The takeaway? We’re looking at more supply, driven by smarter practices, not just more land. That includes better tech, tighter tillage strategies, and improved efficiency across the board.
🤔 Why It Matters to You
This outlook suggests longer periods of tight margins and price pressure. If yields are rising consistently, the global market starts to price in “abundant supply” — which can weigh down your selling opportunities.
Even with bullish days in the market, don’t expect sky-high prices to stick around unless there’s a major shake-up (weather, trade war, etc.). In fact, the more confidence the market has in consistent supply, the more important it becomes for you to plan further ahead.
